ECB research reveals surprising impact of AI on labor market amidst recession

The employment share of sectors exposed to AI increased in a sample of 16 European countries

Employers are currently facing a challenge in finding qualified workers, despite being in the midst of a recession, which typically eases labor market pressures. A Research Bulletin by the ECB analyzed 16 European countries and found that sectors exposed to AI have seen an increase in employment shares. Interestingly, low and medium-skill jobs remained relatively unaffected, while highly-skilled positions experienced the most significant growth. However, the report also noted "neutral to slightly negative impacts" on earnings, suggesting that this trend could lead to potential issues in the future. Overall, the report emphasized that the full impact of AI on employment, wages, and economic equality is yet to be fully realized.

These findings contrast with past "technology waves" where computerization led to a decrease in the relative employment share of medium-skilled workers, resulting in a phenomenon known as "polarization." The report acknowledges that AI-enabled technologies are still evolving and being adopted, making it essential to closely monitor their long-term effects on the labor market, economic growth, and social equity.

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